The concept of futures consciousness

Макарова Ольга Сергеевна

Futures Consciousness is a set of individual abilities and tendencies that can be shifted or developed with practice. Increased awareness of the role that each of the five dimensions of FC play in individuals’ day-to-day lives could help them to take a broader view on future possibilities and to pursue goals more effectively. Improving our futures consciousness will help us identify our own role in shaping the future and build our capacities to become active change-makers.

Futures consciousness consists of five dimensions: time perspective, agency beliefs, openness to alternatives, systems perception and concern for others.

Time perspective is the ability to be aware of the past, present and future, as well as the way events follow each other over time. The concept includes the degree to which awareness of the future is integrated into one’s decision making to assess potential consequences over the long term. An example of this might be how far an individual can defer gratification (delay receiving a reward in the present) to get long term benefits, such as making payments into a voluntary pension scheme today at the cost of everyday luxuries. Short-term thinking and lack of consideration of consequences are the result of a limited time perspective.

• How often you look into the future.

• How far you look into the future.

• How easily you can see or imagine consequences of actions.

Agency Beliefs are a basic sense of confidence that an individual has in their own ability to influence the external world. These beliefs also concern the scope of our agency, meaning how far we think our influence can reach. This sense of agency can influence key decisions that will set the course of our life, for example whether we believe that we can set up our own business, or apply for a university course in which we could thrive. Fatalism, a passive attitude towards the future or a lack of responsibility for one’s own actions may result from limited agency beliefs.

Openness to alternatives is composed of abilities used to critically question commonly accepted ideas and influences an individual’s willingness to consider alternative ways of being and doing. Being open to alternatives also requires an individual to accommodate and accept a degree of uncertainty in the unfolding of the future. An example of openness to alternatives would be our ability to resist the polarizing effects of social media, and break out of siloed thinking. The opposite includes being uncritically optimistic or pessimistic, accepting authority without questioning or an over reliance on past experiences to understand the future.

Systems perception is the ability to recognize human and natural systems around us including groups, societies and ecosystems. This involves the practical application of holistic systems thinking to help recognise the wider consequences of decisions. An example of systems perception is the consideration of the conditions of producers and retailers when selecting between consumer products and hence, being aware of the complex impacts of a simple choice or action. Being unable to see ourselves as a part of these various systems leads to suboptimal solutions or makes us incapable of understanding our responsibilities as a result of disconnection.

Concern for Others relates to the degree to which an individual pursues favourable futures for a group beyond themselves. Individuals with high concern for others have broadened their moral and ethical values to include people who are at a distance to themselves either culturally, physically or temporally. It also implies the ability to perceive connections between a preferred future for ourselves and for others. Standing up to an injustice in a public space or sacrificing present day welfare for future generations would be examples of this dimension. A failure to develop this dimension may reduce an individual’s understanding of the importance of the common good, and may lead to a self-centered lifestyle or lack of deeper meaning in life.

A measure of futures consciousness should never be taken as a concrete and definitive value. The results of psychometric tests – even the best ones – are only ever a sketch of a multifaceted reality. Therefore caution should be exercised when results are interpreted, especially at personal level.

That said, the FC test is a scientifically validated psychometric test, and those who make use of statistical analysis or psychometric tools for individual assessment, may find the test useful as well as entertaining. For example, an organiser of a futures workshop may have participants analyse and reflect on their own strengths and weaknesses regarding FC. This could be in the form of a first step towards empowering a young student or an analytical way for a senior futurist to identify blind spots. A researcher of psychological phenomena may find it interesting to compare the impacts of high FC in political behaviour or an educator to study the impacts of a course on their students.

The FC Test Tool measures the Five Dimensions of Futures Consciousness, which are: Time Perspective; Agency Beliefs; Openness to Alternatives; Systems Perception; and Concern for Others. This conceptual framework was developed through explorative analysis of related futures research literature and has been validated through analysis of related constructs from the field of psychology. For more information see the Scientific Basis section.

Empirical Basis

The FC scale has been established as a reliable and valid psychometric test based on the responses of over 1300 participants. It has been demonstrated to be applicable across international contexts (USA, Finland, Switzerland), as well as on both student and non-student populations

THE SCIENTIFIC BASIS

Futures consciousness is a concept that is often mentioned in the futures field, and the importance of forward-looking perspectives is widely acknowledged (for an overview, see Ahvenharju, Minkkinen, & Lalot, 2018). However, focused conceptual development and empirical work on the concept have been scarce until recently. Empirical research is important because by studying how futures consciousness is manifested in individuals, we can learn more about how future consciousness can be developed and enhanced amongst individuals and societies. In recent contributions, futures consciousness has been defined either very briefly (Sharpe, Hodgson, Leicester, Lyon, & Fazey, 2016) or extremely holistically (Lombardo, 2017). This has served to promote the concept but empirical operationalization has remained challenging. In addition, there is a complex web of interlinked concepts in futures studies, foresight, psychology and sociology. The concepts of future orientation, prospection, projectivity, anticipation and futures literacy all touch on similar topics from different disciplinary origins (Ahvenharju, Minkkinen, & Lalot, 2018; Miller, 2018; Mische, 2009; Poli, 2017; Seginer, 2009).

In order to develop a concept that is sufficiently simple and usable for empirical research, the authors made an extensive review of futures studies and foresight work on concepts related to futures consciousness. The review revealed a long list of characteristics that have been or could be used to describe ‘future-conscious’ persons (Ahvenharju et al., 2018). These characteristics were categorized into five dimensions: time perspective, agency beliefs, openness to alternatives, systems perception and concern for others.

Futures studies

The 20-item futures consciousness scale is rooted in the tradition of futures studies. Futures studies is an interdisciplinary field that includes academic work as well as practical foresight activities in the public, private and non-profit sectors. Modern systematic futures studies emerged after the Second World War, building on long roots in utopian thinking and human future orientation. Futures studies seeks to “invent, examine and evaluate, and propose possible, probable and preferable futures” (Bell 1997, p. 73). Over the years, a multitude of methods has been developed for practical foresight work, for mapping futures of specific issues or entire global systems, and for proactively promoting preferred future outcomes (e.g. Glenn & Gordon, 2009).

What is futures consciousness?

Futures consciousness is the human capacity to understand, anticipate, prepare for and embrace the future.

According to our definition, futures consciousness is the human capacity to understand, anticipate, prepare for and embrace the future. It is an interindividual difference which is linked to variations in cognition, motivation and values (Lalot et al., 2019), and which can be developed over time. Our model of futures consciousness consists of five dimensions: 1) time perspective, 2) agency beliefs, 3) openness to alternatives, 4) systems perceptions and 5) concern for others. The 20-item futures consciousness scale is an operationalization of the construct for measuring interindividual differences in futures consciousness (Lalot, Ahvenharju, Minkkinen, & Wensing, 2019). Measuring these individual differences and abilities through a psychometric scale provides a baseline for further developing forward-looking skills and abilities.

Each of the five dimensions contributes in a different way to an individual’s futures consciousness. Time perspective and agency beliefs constitute the cognitive base for an individual’s futures consciousness, because understanding of time is required for the concept of future, and a sense of personal agency is required for the motivation to consider future possibilities. Systems perception and concern for others, in turn, broaden the conception of future from a narrow personal future to include positioning oneself within relationships, social groups and natural systems. Openness to alternatives bridges these personal and relational aspects of futures consciousness by bringing the understanding that there are options and alternative future possibilities beyond current trends (Ahvenharju et al., manuscript under review).

According to our empirical data, futures consciousness is positively related to several future-oriented behaviors such as pro-environmental and altruistic behavior and engaged citizenship (Lalot et al., 2019).